Expert analysis and perspectives on the cryptocurrency market from our research team.
Today we published a Bitcoin price forecast model for 2026-2031.This is essentially a five-year price target for BTC, based on a power law model adjusted for the structural compression that occurs after each halving.
Read AnalysisOn Tuesday I wrote about problems with HYG (80.28, -0.55%), which signaled the market shifting into a 🔴RISK-OFFregime. By Friday the situation had only worsened:BlackRockwas forced to limit withdrawals f...
Read AnalysisOn-chain and derivatives are signaling capitulation in sync: STH are realizing extreme losses, while long liquidation dominance has reached the 2026 high. Historically, such extremes have formed local bottoms.
Read AnalysisUnrealised losses tripled since January, SOPR Ratio dropped 40% from peaks - market in mid-cycle stress phase, but no signs of mass capitulation.
Read AnalysisSynchronized collapse in flows and stress spike point to capitulation. The key question is whether the market can hold $76K.
Read AnalysisJan 26–Feb 1 marked a sharp escalation in downside. Market Phase collapsed to 0.29, price broke below $80K, and on-chain absorption failed as Net UTXO fell to 0.11. Derivatives confirmed sustained bearish pressure despite partial deleveraging.
Read Analysishe Jan 19–25 week confirmed a failed stabilization and a return to structural weakness. All signals turned bearish: price lost $90K, Market Phase fell to ~0.37, on-chain accumulation broke down (Net UTXO at 0.319), and derivatives shifted firmly risk-off. Bitcoin is slightly undervalued (5–10% below Fair Value) but not in a strong accumulation zone. Base case is continued pressure or consolidation. Any upside is likely a technical bounce until on-chain and derivative conditions materially improve.
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